Postby Gedo_Boy » Mon Jan 29, 2007 5:10 pm
dhuusa,
You raise some good points about Hawiye concerns of disarmament. That's a legitimate concern. In order to alleviate a legitimate concern, it was my opinion that instead of disarmament initally, it might work better to prevent the public display of weapons and to keep them home. However, Xamar is the Somali capital. Living in & around the Somali capital has distinct advantages (economic, among & above others) and there's also another side to that which is the fact that disarmament would most likely start there. It's a double-edged sword.
So, having gotten that out of the way, let's move on the ICU.
Due to some linear combination of ignorance, zealous extremism, political inflexibility & naivete, the ICU did not play their cards properly.
That's a flaw w/ the ICU, not the TFG. The ICU started flexing military muscle first, not the TFG.
Whether or not the TFG intended to flex their military muscle at a later date is not the question. But the fact is that the TFG, love 'em or hate 'em, played their cards in a more sophisticated fashion than did the ICU.
When you have players in the ICU who say things like: "We will pray Eid in Addis...." you know what that does? That creates a pretext, and not just propoganda, but actual quotes & soundbytes that can be used against you.
It's true the ICU might have had enemies, but if you shoot yourself in the foot, you might be your own worst enemy.
The ICU went on a military expansion and downplayed the importance of dialouge, even saying things like: "We will send the TFG fleeing from Baidoa w/ their bags".....................
That was their modus operandi.........can you fault the TFG for playing the same game?
They had foreign allies, the TFG had foreign allies..............
